Consensus Mock Draft: Ayton a lock? Bagley rising, Doncic falling

NBA.com Global on Jun 17, 2018 03:34 PM
Consensus Mock Draft: Bagley rising, Doncic falling
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By Drew Packham, NBA.com

The Consensus Mock Draft is a compilation of the best mock drafts around the web. We bring them together to come up with a good estimate of how the 2018 NBA Draft could play out.

For the first time in their history, the Phoenix Suns have the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. But what will they do with it? Go with talented big man DeAndre Ayton, who played college ball nearby at Arizona? Or do they go with the international phenom Luka Doncic, who has been one of the most celebrated players in Europe? We'll find out June 21 (June 22, PHL time). Until then, we'll continue to monitor the Mock Drafts around the web to come up with a clearer picture of what might go down.

Some notes as we enter the final week before next Thursday's (Friday, PHL time) draft:

- There's now a complete consensus at No. 1: Deandre Ayton appears to be the pick here, as the Suns get their big man to rebuild around. Previous looks had the Suns going with Luka Doncic, but now all 10 mock drafts have Phoenix going with the talented big man who played down the road at Arizona.
     
- The real intrigue begins at No. 2. Luka Doncic once appeared to be a lock at this spot, but it now appears the Kings are leaning toward either Duke’s Marvin Bagley III or taking a chance on Michael Porter Jr. (Sacramento is reportedly high on Porter, and could even trade down if they think they could get him lower.)
     
- Things will really get interesting at No. 3. In our look at the 10 mock drafts, no player appears three times (Jaren Jackson Jr.). Doncic, Bagley and Trae Young each appear twice.
     
- Doncic’s spiral is fascinating. He now appears most commonly at No. 4 to the Grizzlies (four times), and one site (NBADraft.net) has him slipping all the way to Dallas at No. 5. Doncic has long been considered one of the Top 2 prospects and most-NBA ready despite being just 19-years-old, thanks to strong experience in Euroleague action with Real Madrid.
     
- Seven of the 10 mocks have Bagley going No. 3 to the Hawks. The other three have Michigan State's Jackson heading to Atlanta.
     
- Oklahoma guard Trae Young has seen his stock rise a bit. Two mocks currently have him going to the Hawks at No. 3, but no one expects him to fall past the Knicks at No. 9.
     
- Miami shooting guard Lonnie Walker IV has seen some increased buzz since our last look. He previously appeared on just three of our 10 mocks, but now shows up in six mocks, as high as No. 10 to the 76ers (twice) and most commonly at No. 13 to the Clippers (three times).
     
- No one seems to have any idea where Michael Porter Jr. will land. In a surprising update, Basketball Insiders and USA Today both have Porter going No. 2 to Sacramento. But two mocks also see him falling as far as No. 8 to Cleveland. Porter could be a pivotal piece to this year’s draft.
     
- One player gaining some ground in the mocks is Kentucky swingman Kevin Knox. In our first look he only appeared on a few mocks, but now he shows up in the lottery on eight of the 10 mocks. The Ringer has him going at No. 7 to the Bulls, but most see him landing in the end of the lottery.
     
- After the top pick, the rest of the lottery appears to be anyone's guess. Bagley appears six times at No. 2 and Mo Bamba shows up six times at No. 6 to Orlando, but no one else shows up more than five times at any draft position. This should change between now and June 21, but for now there's a lot of uncertainty.
     
- Nine players appear on all 10 mocks we survey: Ayton, Doncic, Bagley, Jackson, Young, Bamba, Porter, Mikal Bridges and Wendell Carter Jr.

MOST COMMON PICKS

No. 1 (Suns): Deandre Ayton (10)
No. 2 (Kings): Marvin Bagley III (6)
No. 3 (Hawks): Jaren Jackson Jr. (3)
No. 4 (Grizzlies): Luka Doncic (5)
No. 5 (Mavericks): Jaren Jackson Jr. (4)
No. 6 (Magic): Mohamed Bamba (6)
No. 7 (Bulls): Michael Porter Jr. (3)
No. 8 (Cavaliers): Wendell Carter Jr. (5)
No. 9 (Knicks): Mikal Bridges (4)
No. 10 (76ers): Mikal Bridges (4)
No. 11 (Hornets): Kevin Knox, Miles Bridges (3)
No. 12 (Clippers): Collin Sexton (4)
No. 13 (Clippers): Robert Williams (5)
No. 14 (Nuggets): Kevin Knox (3)

Most common (above): Pick at which the player is most commonly projected, with number of mock drafts in parentheses. For example, Deandre Ayton is projected to go first in all 10 of the mock drafts listed below.

Top 14 (below): To calculate the consensus, we awarded 14 points for every mock draft in which the player went first overall, 13 for second, continuing to one point for the final lottery pick. The player with the highest point total represents the top overall selection, which is as follows:

No. 1: Deandre Ayton | Phoenix Suns

Arizona | Position: C | Height: 7-1
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 1 (10)

Physical specimen who has size to shine in post, but agile and talented enough to develop outside game; should contribute from Day 1 to whomever lands him

No. 2: Marvin Bagley III | Sacramento Kings

Duke | Position: PF | Height: 6-11
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 2 (6)

ACC Player of the Year has all the makings of a small-ball center or power forward who can make defenses sweat -- all while rebounding at a prodigious rate

No. 3: Luka Doncic | Atlanta Hawks

Real Madrid | Position: SG/SF | Height: 6-8
Status: International
Most Common: 4 (5)

Versatile Slovenian is one of most NBA-ready international prospects ever; talented distributor who can play both guard positions

No. 4: Jaren Jackson Jr. | Memphis Grizzlies

Michigan State | Position: PF | Height: 6-11
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 5 (4)

Outstanding defender who boasts an emerging offensive game that gives him great two-way potential

No. 5: Michael Porter Jr. | Dallas Mavericks

Missouri | Position: SF | Height: 6-10
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 7 (3)

Teams will be wary of his back injury which limited him to just three games at Mizzou, but he can shoot, which with his length, makes him a valuable weapon

No. 6: Mohamed Bamba | Orlando Magic

Texas | Position: C | Height: 7-0
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 6 (6)

Long, talented defender was second in the country in blocked shots per game last season (3.7) and fourth in total blocks (111), drawing comparisons to Rudy Gobert and Clint Capela

No. 7: Trae Young | Chicago Bulls

Oklahoma | Position: PG | Height: 6-2
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 8 (3)

Talented scorer led the nation in scoring (27.4) and assists (8.7) per game, but will need to improve on defensive end in NBA

No. 8: Wendell Carter Jr. | Cleveland Cavaliers

Duke | Position: PF/C | Height: 6-10
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 8 (5)

Do-it-all big man draws comparisons to Al Horford; has huge hands that allow him to catch and score in the paint, while also having the physicality to finish through contact

No. 9: Mikal Bridges | New York Knicks

Villanova | Position: SG/SF | Height: 6-7
Status: Junior
Most Common: 9, 10 (4)

The All-Big East first team selection who helped Villanova to a title is considered one of the best two-way prospects, drawing comparisons to Kawhi Leonard

No. 10: Miles Bridges | Philadelphia 76ers

Michigan State | Position: SF/PF | Height: 6-7
Status: Sophomore
Most Common: 10, 11 (3)

The first team all-Big 10 selection averaged 17 points and 7 rebounds a game for the Spartans and was a finalist for the Wooden Award

No. 11: Collin Sexton | Charlotte Hornets

Alabama | Position: PG | Height: 6-2
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 12 (4)

Was second in SEC in scoring (19.2 per game); his toughness and competitive streak are viewed highly by pro evaluators, even drawing comparisons to Russell Westbrook

No. 12: Kevin Knox | LA Clippers

Kentucky | Position: SF/PF | Height: 6-9
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 11, 14 (3)

Showed potential as a perimeter threat and was an all-SEC freshmen team selection while starting 37 games at Kentucky

No. 13: Lonnie Walker IV | LA Clippers

Miami | Position: SG | Height: 6-4
Status: Freshman
Most Common: 13 (3)

A long, explosive, athletic shooting guard who put points on the board in bunches from the perimeter and on the break

No. 14: Robert Williams | Denver Nuggets

Texas A&M | Position: PF/C | Height: 6-9
Status: Sophomore
Most Common: 13 (5)

Was an SEC all-Defensive Team selection, finishing in Top 20 nationally both in defensive rating and total blocks; questions remain about consistency of effort

MOCK DRAFTS

ESPN.com

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Marvin Bagley III
3. Jaren Jackson Jr.
4. Luka Doncic
5. Mohamed Bamba
6. Wendell Carter Jr.
7. Michael Porter Jr.
8. Trae Young
9. Kevin Knox
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
12. Collin Sexton
13. Lonnie Walker IV
14. Miles Bridges

Last updated: June 14

The Ringer

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Marvin Bagley III
3. Luka Doncic
4. Michael Porter Jr.
5. Jaren Jackson Jr.
6. Mohamed Bamba
7. Kevin Knox
8. Wendell Carter Jr.
9. Trae Young
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Collin Sexton
12. Miles Bridges
13. Lonnie Walker IV
14. Zhaire Smith

Last updated: June 13

NBADraft.net

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Marvin Bagley III
3. Trae Young
4. Jaren Jackson Jr.
5. Luka Doncic
6. Mohamed Bamba
7. Mikal Bridges
8. Michael Porter Jr.
9. Wendell Carter Jr.
10. Miles Bridges
11. Collin Sexton
12. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
13. Zhaire Smith
14. Robert Williams

Last updated: June 13

SI.com

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Marvin Bagley III
3. Jaren Jackson Jr.
4. Luka Doncic
5. Michael Porter Jr.
6. Mohamed Bamba
7. Trae Young
8. Wendell Carter Jr.
9. Mikal Bridges
10. Lonnie Walker IV
11. Kevin Knox
12. Collin Sexton
13. Robert Williams
14. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Last updated: June 12

USA Today

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Michael Porter Jr.
3. Marvin Bagley III
4. Luka Doncic
5. Jaren Jackson Jr.
6. Mohamed Bamba
7. Wendell Carter Jr.
8. Trae Young
9. Collin Sexton
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Miles Bridges
12. Lonnie Walker IV
13. Robert Williams
14. Kevin Knox

Last updated: June 15

SB Nation

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Luka Doncic
3. Jaren Jackson Jr.
4. Trae Young
5. Marvin Bagley III
6. Mohamed Bamba
7. Miles Bridges
8. Michael Porter Jr.
9. Mikal Bridges
10. Wendell Carter Jr.
11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
12. Collin Sexton
13. Robert Williams
14. Chandler Hutchison

Last updated: June 11

Bleacher Report

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Marvin Bagley III
3. Mohamed Bamba
4. Luka Doncic
5. Jaren Jackson Jr.
6. Trae Young
7. Michael Porter Jr.
8. Wendell Carter Jr.
9. Mikal Bridges
10. Lonnie Walker IV
11. Miles Bridges
12. Collin Sexton
13. Robert Williams
14. Kevin Knox

Last updated: June 11

Net Scouts

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Luka Doncic
3. Marvin Bagley III
4. Jaren Jackson Jr.
5. Mohamed Bamba
6. Wendell Carter Jr.
7. Michael Porter Jr.
8. Trae Young
9. Collin Sexton
10. Miles Bridges
11. Kevin Knox
12. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
13. Robert Williams
14. Mikal Bridges

Last updated: June 5

CBS Sports

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Marvin Bagley III
3. Luka Doncic
4. Michael Porter Jr.
5. Jaren Jackson Jr.
6. Mohamed Bamba
7. Trae Young
8. Wendell Carter Jr.
9. Collin Sexton
10. Mikal Bridges
11. Miles Bridges
12. Robert Williams
13. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
14. Kevin Knox

Last updated: June 15

Basketball Insiders

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Michael Porter Jr.
3. Trae Young
4. Luka Doncic
5. Marvin Bagley III
6. Jaren Jackson Jr.
7. Mohamed Bamba
8. Wendell Carter Jr.
9. Mikal Bridges
10. Miles Bridges
11. Kevin Knox
12. Robert Williams
13. Lonnie Walker IV
14. Troy Brown

Last updated: June 13

ESPN Insider: Jonathan Givony
SI.com: Jeremy Woo
Net Scouts: Carl Berman
Bleacher Report: Jonathan Wasserman
Basketball Insiders: Steve Kyler
CBS Sports: Gary Parrish
SB Nation: Tom Ziller

 

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